Word Cup 2011 – The countdown begins

Come February 19, the entire nation will just have one prayer on their lips – The earnest desire to see M.S. Dhoni lift the World Cup on a festive Mumbai night in April.

The Format

One look at the World Cup format and it is clear that the organizers have blocked all holes to avoid any mishap similar to the disastrous 2007 WC fiasco. The draw and the format has all but ensured that the hosts’ interests would be preserved at least till the quarter finals of the WC- which effectively means, the sponsors’ interests would be sustained at least till the final week.

This is where the problem lies, though. The concept of quarter finals makes it difficult to predict a winner and one can also argue that we might have a situation where the most consistent teams might suddenly find themselves out of the competition with just one bad game. One needs to go only as far back as the 96 World Cup. South Africa won all 5 of their group matches, to meet the Windies who just won 2 out of their 5. However, they were knocked out By Brian Lara, and the Windies sailed through to the semis. This is where a format like the Super six is better suited as the more consistent teams would make the semi-finals.

Perhaps the best thing to do from the next Wold Cup would be to have the top 6 teams (from ICC ranking table) sail through to the main event directly. The 4 bottom ranked teams and 4 qualifying teams can play a knock out tournament a week before the WC main event. The top 2 teams from the bottom 8 can then join the top 6 to have just 8 teams for the WC main event. These teams can play against each other, with the top 4 making it to the semis. This would also reduce the meaningless games and make the WC a more interesting spectacle.

The Favorites and Why

Back to WC 2011 after that small digression. Though it is difficult to pick a winner, India and Sri Lanka look like the early tournament favorites, based on current form. I think the advantage of playing in home conditions is a bit over hyped these days because, thanks to the IPL exposure, sub continent conditions are no longer a mystery. However, the home crowd will drive both these teams in their quest for glory. Australia and Pakistan would be the dark horses. Australia have a batting order that runs deep and their seamers like Bollinger, Brett Lee have enough experience on the sub continent, thanks to the IPL. However, they will definitely miss a quality spinner and once the new ball is seen through, they might struggle with their bowling. Though Pakistan might look like an odd pick, the only thing predictable about them is their unpredictability. Currently, they have a stable middle order with Misbah and Younis, though their top order appears shaky. Their lower middle order is arguably the best in the tournament with Umar Akmal, Shahid Afridi, Razaq and Wahab Riaz. A bowling attack that includes Shoaib, Razaq, Wahab Riaz,Sohail Tanveer,Saeed Ajmal and Afridi can trouble any batting line up. In addition, they will be desperate to prove themselves as the opportunities that they get on world stage is minimal these days. The quarter final format would particularly suit an inconsistent team like Pakistan. This is because theoretically, a team needs just 3 ( or if they are lucky, only 2) out of 6 games to reach the quarter finals. From there, 3 good days are enough to win the World cup. This is what makes the task of picking a clear winner particularly difficult.

Out of these teams, Sri Lanka looks like the safest bet to reach the semis, and I have my reasons. Let us take a look at Group A. Sri Lanka play all their matches at home, and their spin attack of Murali, Herath and Mendis is easily the best. So they are most likely to top their group. This means, that they will take on the fourth placed team from group B. This is likely to be Windies or Bangladesh, and hence, out of all teams, they will be the most likely ones to get an easier QF match. Australia are most likely to finish second from Group A. Let us move to group B now. India and South Africa are most likely to finish at the top of this group. Both these teams will be nervous because the winner will face the fourth placed team from group A and the runner up will face the third placed team. This means that both India and South Africa are likely to face either Pakistan or New Zealand ; potential giant killers. This is where India would be missing the advantage that Sri Lanka has. England are likely to take the 3rd slot from group A. However, only a man with a lot of flair for unconventional thinking can put their money on England or South Africa to win the world cup. This is because there will be 3 pressure games within a week (QF,SF and Finals), which means three good days under high pressure ; something a South African team has never achieved. England, I think would be really jaded coming into this WC after a long tour down under where they played 5 tests and 7 one dayers. They have lost a bit of momentum going down 6-1 and it highly likely that they would face Australia in the quarters, and my money would be on Australia to come through. So the top 7 test teams are most likely to sail though from the group stages, and I think it will be a toss up between Windies and Bangladesh for the eighth slot. Bangladesh can not be taken lightly because , they play all their group matches at home and their battery of left arm spinners will choke all the non Asian teams who have not faced them regularly. So this time, since we do not have a Super Six league, it is more of a question of who plays whom in the knockouts , rather than worrying about which teams would qualify. This is where I think the teams would be cautious not to lose a few crucial games in the group stages and eventually run into a red hot team in the quarter finals.

The Indians

As a passionate Indian supporter, it would be a dream to see India lift the trophy, and we have a squad that has every chance of succeeding. Much will depend on how Sachin and Sehwag set the tone at the top. Also, if Yusuf can cash in on the batting power play,especially against the minnows like Holland and Ireland, we have every chance of improving our net run rate to ensure we finish as the top ranking team in the group, which would mean we would avoid a clash with Sri Lanka and Australia in the QF. (Though we might have a sudden death encounter with Pakistan). It is no more a question of whether Virat Kohli will make it to the starting XI. It is a question of where he plays and whom he replaces. Ideally Gautam Gambhir should play at number 3, so it looks like Raina might have to be sacrificed. One major “X” factor that might assist the Indians is their ability to handle pressure. Time and again, they have made a comeback from nowhere and held their nerves and this is a priceless asset when it comes to the knockout stages.

Our bowling was top class in South Africa in the death overs, and if Zaheer and Nehra can stay fit, it is only going to help our cause. The department India has an edge over most teams is the part time attack. Yuvraj, Raina,Sehwag, Yusuf can all turn their arm over, and this would mean a regular dose of 15-20 overs, allowing India to play the extra batsman. This is priceless because, we are going to play in February and March in flood light games. This would bring in the dew factor and playing an extra batsman might prove handly, as most matches are likely to be won by teams that bat better through the 50 overs. Win the toss, field first, and then chase the total with 7 batsmen (and the dew factor) would be mantra of the Indian team in the group stages.

On a personal note, I hope my childhood buddy Ashwin plays as many games as possible and picks up a bucket of wickets in this World Cup. What a dream he is living ! Wearing the Indian jersey at the World Cup and sharing a dressing room with Sachin ! And speaking of Sachin; forget all the talks about the Bharat Ratna, I think our entire nation owes him a World Cup. I bunked my school in fifth grade to watch India play SL in WC 1996, and cried all night and skipped dinner when that sinister ‘keeper Kalu hid the ball in his gloves, deceiving Sachin and silently whipped the bails off as he set off for a run ! That sight remains etched in memory. And it was disappointment once again in 2003, when Sachin pulled a ball straight down Mcgrath’s throat in pursuit of a stiff chase. He is in the form of his life right now, and once again in 2011, even though I am sitting in the other end of the world in San Francisco, I would still burn the mid night oil to watch every ball that my hero is going to face and hope that he erases those painful memories of 96 and ’03 by bowing out of the ODI format with a sterling century at the Wankhede on April 2nd 2011 !

Let the Celebrations begin !

So with a billion minds occupied with a single thought, a billion hearts swelling with Indian pride and hope, with two billion hands clapping earnestly for each boundary , with 2 billion legs jumping for joy at every opposition wicket,with 2 billion eyes glued to the TV with overflowing expectations ,with 2 billion lips fervently filled with prayers, and a billion sore throats fanatically cheering the team on, let us put everything aside for the next couple of months and live the Indian World Cup dream – Go India !